Simulation Station

Simulation of Celtics' potential playoff matchups results in a twist

Share

The Boston Celtics look unbeatable right now.

They've won five in a row and 23 of their last 27 games to surge into fourth place in the NBA's Eastern Conference and just 1.5 games back of the No. 1 seed Miami Heat. They have a legitimate chance to catch Miami over the final eight regular-season games and should easily win their first-round NBA playoff series if they continue to play at this level.

But there's a lingering narrative that the Brooklyn Nets aren't a great first-round matchup.

While the Nets sit eighth in the East at 38-35, they boast the NBA's most talented one-two punch in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving that could turn lethal once the postseason begins. Even if Ben Simmons doesn't suit up, Brooklyn will be a serious problem if Durant and Irving are on their A-games.

The Celtics can draw the Nets in two scenarios: if Boston earns the No. 1 seed and Brooklyn finishes second in the play-in tournament to land the No. 8 seed, or if Boston gets No. 2 and Brooklyn wins the play-in tournament to land the No. 7 seed. The Toronto Raptors, currently the No. 7 seed, also are a candidate to face the C's coming out of the play-in tournament.

If the C's finish at No. 3 or No. 4, their most likely opponents are the No. 6 Cleveland Cavaliers and the No. 5 Chicago Bulls.

Forsberg: How important is the No. 1 seed to the Celtics?

So is that narrative correct? Does Brooklyn have the best chance of knocking off the Celtics in Round 1, or is there a different team Boston should be worried about?

Our partners at Strat-O-Matic -- who foreshadowed Boston's second-half surge back in February -- simulated first-round playoff series between the Celtics and four different opponents: Cleveland, Toronto, Brooklyn and Chicago. The outcomes may not be what you expect.

Celtics vs. Cavs series: Boston wins in seven

Here's the first mild surprise: The young, inexperienced Cavs take the Celtics to seven games in Round 1.

All-Star point guard Darius Garland leads all scorers with 24.6 points per game as Cleveland goes a perfect 3-0 at home, including an overtime win in Game 3.

Jaylen Brown comes up clutch in Game 7, though, dropping 27 points at TD Garden to help the Celtics survive and advance.

Celtics vs. Raptors series: Boston wins in five

That's more like it.

The Raptors never lose by double digits in this series, but Jayson Tatum proves too much for Toronto to handle, going off for 34 points in a Game 4 win while averaging 26.6 points over a five-game gentleman's sweep.

Celtics vs. Nets series: Boston wins in five

Yes, you read that right: Boston wins in five, ending the Nets' championship aspirations before they even begin.

The Celtics' defense stifles Brooklyn in Games 1 and 2, wins Game 4 on the road behind Tatum's 26 points and cruises to an easy Game 5 victory to make a statement as the team to beat in the East.

Unless...

Celtics vs. Bulls series: Chicago wins in six

... They play the Bulls? All seems well after the Celtics take Games 1 and 2 in Boston, but Chicago rips off four straight wins to send the stunned C's home for the summer.

The primary culprit: Big man Nikola Vucevic, who averages 27.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the series and scores a combined 105 points over the final three games.

--

The Celtics shouldn't be worried about anyone right now given the way they're playing. They just steamrolled the 45-28 Utah Jazz by 28 points and are demolishing good and bad teams alike.

But this simulation is a friendly reminder that the playoffs are a different animal, and that the Bulls -- who have sputtered of late but were the No. 1 seed in the East at the All-Star break -- may be a tougher out than expected.

Contact Us