How would 2017-18 Celtics have fared without Gordon Hayward injury?
What if Gordon Hayward hadn't suffered a serious injury in his Celtics debut? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic used their simulation software to run it back on Boston's 2017-18 season with a healthy Hayward in tow.The results? To quote Irving at the duo’s introductory press conference, “It’s about to be crazy, G.” Here are the most interesting takeaways from Strat-O-Matic's data.
Editors Note: Strat-O-Matic, the market leader in sports simulation, has partnered with NBC Sports Boston to build simulation experiences for "What If Wednesdays.”
If only the Boston Celtics had gotten this Gordon Hayward...
The veteran forward is enjoying a career season for the surprisingly good Charlotte Hornets after three underwhelming campaigns in Boston, where he never quite lived up to the maximum contract he signed with the Celtics in 2017.
That’s in part due to a stroke of terrible luck: Hayward suffered a gruesome, season-ending leg injury five minutes into his Celtics debut on Oct. 17, 2017. He never was quite the same in Boston before leaving for the Hornets last fall.
But what if Hayward successfully converted Kyrie Irving’s alley-oop pass and never injured his leg? How good would the 2017-18 Celtics have been with Hayward, Irving, Al Horford and two young studs in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown?
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic used their advanced simulation software to play out that Celtics campaign with a healthy Hayward, producing full regular- and postseason results for Boston in addition to complete player stats.
Let's dive into our takeaways from Strat-O-Matic's 2017-18 season simulation.
Hayward follows up an All-Star campaign in Utah with an even better first season with the Celtics. Strat-O-Matic has the C’s forward putting up 22.3 points per game (second on the team behind Irving) with 5.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while shooting nearly 50% from the floor and 46.1% from 3-point range, good for eighth-best in the NBA.
The highlight of Hayward’s season is a 57-point explosion against the San Antonio Spurs (second-highest scoring total of the NBA season) thanks to 11 made 3-pointers.
These numbers present a compelling argument that Hayward could have thrived as the No. 2 option behind Irving if he didn't get hurt.
The silver lining from Irving and Hayward's real-life injuries was that Tatum, Brown and Terry Rozier flourished in their absence. In this simulation, that flourishing still happens.
Tatum and Brown both average double digits in scoring (ranking third and fourth on the team, respectively), while Tatum leads the NBA in 3-point percentage as a rookie.
Rozier's numbers take a dip -- he averaged 11.3 points per game in real life -- but he still appears in 79 games and starts 27 at point guard in the the absence of Irving, who actually misses four more regular-season games in the simulation than he did in real life.
Kyrie still gets his buckets, though: His 25.2 points per game tie a career high at the time that he set the season before in Cleveland.
A healthy Hayward gives the Celtics exactly one extra win, as they post a 56-26 record compared to 55-27 in real life. They get hot at the right time, though, winning five of their last six to secure the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics avoid the Milwaukee Bucks in this simulation, drawing the Wizards in the first round after beating Washington by 13 in the second-to-last game of the regular season.
The Toronto Raptors also earn the No. 1 seed in the East as the NBA's lone 60-win team, but as you'll see, the path to the NBA Finals in the East doesn't run through Canada.
The Celtics dispatch the Wizards in Round 1 before outlasting the Philadelphia 76ers in a seven-game, second-round slugfest.
Hayward explodes for 71 points in a two-game span (27 in Game 2; 44 in Game 3) to help the C's take early control of the series, but it’s future Sixer Al Horford who plays hero in Game 7 with 30 points and 11 rebounds.
The C’s fell to LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers in seven games of the Eastern Conference finals in real life, but Hayward assures a different result in the simulation, scoring 36 points in Game 7 to power Boston to a 108-100 win that returns the team to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010.
James is a monster in the series, though, topping 30 points in five of the seven games and leading all scorers every contest but Game 7.
The Celtics run into the Golden State buzzsaw 2018 NBA Finals. The Warriors jump out to a 3-0 series lead thanks to the offensive efforts of Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry and some excellent team defense, as Boston fails to reach 90 points in Games 1 and 3.
Irving’s 42 points in Game 5 help force a Game 6, but Durant drops 31 in the clincher to stop the Celtics two wins of an NBA title.
There’s plenty to ponder about a Celtics team with Hayward playing at a high level. If he played out all four years of his contract in Boston, he’d still be on the C’s this season, and perhaps Irving wouldn’t have left after the 2018-19 campaign if the team made another deep title run instead of flaming out in the second round.
The biggest question involves the Jays, though. Would Tatum and Brown still have blossomed into All-Stars with two elite players ahead of them? It’s hard to imagine both scoring 20 points per game while sharing with Irving and Hayward … but considering how Boston’s current season is going, maybe that wouldn’t be the worst development.
It’s a fascinating thought experiment, but if you want to come back to reality, tune in to NBC Sports Boston this Sunday at 6 p.m. ET when Hayward’s Hornets visit TD Garden.
