Forsberg's Mailbag: Luxury tax, trade buzz and ‘Schroderfreude'

It’s trade deadline week and the Celtics are surging.

Did we spend this week’s mailbag examining egregious trade machine proposals that deliver the Celtics to surefire contenders? Or did we spend 2,000 words on Dennis Schroder and the luxury tax? You’ll have to read on to find out:

Trading Dennis Schroder is probably best call for next year and beyond, and (there is) likely some demand for him. (But he is a) key rotational player and really important if injuries (occur). Do you trade and rely on (Payton) Pritchard? Or hold and maximize this season on wide-open East? — @SBussberg

Celtics fans have been battling a case of Schroderfreude all season. There are nights when Schroder attacks the basket, thrives as both a scorer and playmaker, and sucks you into wondering if he could aid a potential playoff push.

Then you angrily check his season splits while watching him walk the dog as Boston’s offense is sputtering for the 1,000th time this season and find that his efficiency dives off a cliff when comparing starter Schroder (18.6 points on 48.6/38.1/87.2% shooting splits) with bench Schroder (9.9 points on 36.2/29.6/80.7% splits).

But even Boston’s front office has to be wrestling with the decision about his future. With no surefire pathway to retaining him after the season, there’s an obvious benefit to moving him now if the Celtics were able to obtain any sort of future asset. What’s more, Boston has an obvious preference to dip below the tax and the quickest path to that is trading a desirable veteran on a digestible contract.

But they have to balance all that with the fact that first-year coach Ime Udoka has leaned heavy on an eight-man rotation and stripping one of those players could leave the team particularly vulnerable if he can’t embrace the bumps that might come with playing a second-year player.

There are those inside the organization, and certainly within the coaching staff, who enjoy the luxury of Schroder, who has produced his best basketball when plugged in as spot starter for a team that, until recently, had battled perpetual injury woes.

Would Bucks be a good Schroder trade partner for Celtics?

It was easier to stomach the notion of embracing youth when Boston was clinging to a play-in spot but, recency bias or not, that’s a more complicated decision after a season-high five-game win streak now has Boston knocking on the door of the 6th spot in the East.

If the Celtics knew for sure that Jaylen Brown was going to hit a couple of his incentives, it might make the Schroder decision easier. There could be other avenues to getting below the tax but those options could be more prickly than just dealing Schroder.

So what would GM Forsberg do? We’re sticking with our guns that the Celtics need to figure out what they’ve got in some of their youngest players and, unless they’re moving some out in other deals, then you move Schroder and hope Pritchard rebuilds his rookie-year confidence.

Ultimately, even with this latest surge, we’re not sure Schroder changes the trajectory of the season and it’s more important to dodge the tax and develop the youth.

How important is it *really* that the C's get under the luxury tax? What's the benefit for next offseason? — @darren_hartwell

We could bore you with a whole bunch of numbers and, if you’re sick and twisted, you can hop over to CBAFAQ.com and read our pal Larry Coon’s easy-to-digest explanation on all tax matters.

But here’s the crux of the matter: NBA teams pay steep prices for every dollar spent over the tax line. And, when teams exceed the tax in three of the four most recent seasons, the cost spikes higher due to stiff repeater penalties.

What’s more, all non-taxpaying teams split all the money that taxpaying teams contribute. Because teams like the Nets are on a spending splurge this season, non-taxpayers are in line for a monster rebate -- $10-plus million apiece -- at the end of the season.

The Celtics last paid the luxury tax back in 2018-19 with big hopes that Kyrie Irving and Co. would eventually figure out their issues. They didn’t. Boston was able to avoid the tax in 2019-20 but needed to dodge it again last year to ensure repeater penalties wouldn’t get triggered (which is why, in the aftermath of adding Evan Fournier, Boston made the shortsighted decision to salary dump Daniel Theis and Javonte Green to Chicago).

The Celtics could theoretically pay the tax this year but, with the clear goal of adding salary next season and plunging headfirst into the tax for the foreseeable future, they would be in line to pay the tax starting in 2024-25 when there’s already $67 million on the books (for Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams) and an eventual Jaylen Brown extension would push that number north of $100 million for just four players.

The Celtics are bracing to pay unsavory tax bills starting next season and the further they can stiff-arm those repeater penalties, the easier it is to keep a championship window open.

(Related: Are we cheating in the mailbag by answering questions from a fellow NBC Sports Boston employee? Maaaaaaaybe. PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!)

Should Wyc Grousbeck get criticism for his lack of spending? There are more rumors out there concerning getting under the tax than there are of improving the team. Wouldn't it be a better investment to show the Jays that he is willing to spend rather than penny pinch? — @Kwentworth13

From a fan’s perspective, we completely understand any frustration that a team might be prioritizing long-term finances over immediate success. It’s especially hard given billion-dollar evaluations for these franchises. But a few things to keep in mind:

• At the end of the day, the NBA is a business. If you owned a business and you were given the option of a $10-plus million rebate or paying $10 million with no guarantee that the latter would improve the outcome of the fiscal year, would you do it?
• Some NBA owners have deeper pockets than others. Steve Ballmer can more easily splurge to add a Norm Powell than most teams lingering in play-in spots. The Celtics have consistently spent into the tax when the team feels it has a legitimate chance to compete for a title. They’ve been far more cautious when that’s not the case.
• Even in those seasons when the Celtics have splurged into the tax, there have been limits on what they can spend overall. In 2008, Boston paid $8.2 million in tax and was rewarded with a title. The team spent $14.9 million in taxes while advancing to the NBA Finals in 2010. Boston spent $46 million total from 2008-2013 before reeling things back in after Brad Stevens took over as coach. Even factoring in rebates in non-taxpaying years, the Celtics have still paid roughly $25 million in total tax payments in the two decades since the tax was introduced.

There is certainly a balance to be struck in showing the core of this team that ownership is willing to spend. It’s on Stevens and ownership to have those tough conversations with players to show them how some thriftiness now could pay bigger dividends moving forward.

OK, that was a whole lotta words on Schroder and the tax. Let’s cram in as many questions as possible with a lightning round…

We have been watching the C’s dominate defensively against low-ranking teams. Do we think they can do this against the top 10 teams of the league? — @Ricarius

Short answer: Maybe. But for all the “but they’re just feasting on bad teams!” consternation, we’d calmly note that good teams are supposed to feast on inferior competition.

We’re as eager as anyone to see how it translates against the best of the best. But beggars can’t be choosers. And winning is a bottom-line activity for these Celtics at the moment.

Our eyes suggest this is more than a mirage. Boston might finally have an identity behind that stingy defense that should give this team a chance to compete most nights.

Can we continue bringing the band back? I’m talking about Marcus Morris Sr. — @Smileyjogger

No one enjoys getting bands back together more than me. But while we can daydream about reuniting the 2018-19 Celtics (minus Kyrie, of course), we’d prefer more of a ball-mover at that 4 spot now.

Morris is averaging 13.3 shots per game this season. All that said, someone fly to Madrid and deliver me Guerschon Yabusele RIGHT THIS MINUTE. 

Is Romeo Langford on the same development path as Robert Williams? Often injured with potential. — @CoachBeriau

We’d say we're higher than most at this point on Langford’s potential; we’re also more willing to move on at the moment. His lack of consistent floor time has forced us to ponder if the Celtics would be better using his deal to add a veteran that could be a more surefire rotation option for Udoka.

It’s never a good thing to swallow hard on a former lottery pick but Boston doesn’t have many assets nor does it have the patience to develop all its younger talent. Some of Langford’s lack of time is on him and his injury woes, but Udoka is also unwilling to lean heavy on the kids (and the end of the Detroit game didn’t exactly suggest he was wrong).

Forsberg: How Robert Williams has emerged as Boston's third star

Langford is due $5.6 million next season. That’s an uncomfortable number if he’s not a surefire rotation player on a team with a potentially ballooning payroll. Then you still have to decide if you’re going to pay him his next deal the following summer when his trade value would evaporate if he doesn’t blossom.

So if this team doesn’t have the ability to figure that out with him on the court, then it’s better for everyone involved to just move on. Which is why we pitched a Romeo-for-Justin Holiday deal in last week’s 'bag.

Is Aaron Nesmith really just James Young 2.0, or is there legitimate sentiment in the organization that his shot will work itself out over time? — @aidanByrne11

Ouch, Aidan. Words hurt. Nesmith plays with far more energy and hustle than Young ever did. But if we see any stories about Nesmith adding 15 pounds of muscle this summer, don’t buy the hype.

Like all of Boston’s youngest players, Nesmith needs court time to actually develop. The Celtics need to decide which of their youngest players they are most willing to invest in and actually do it. For now, we’d settle for more Maine reps if Udoka is going to simply squeeze all he can out of an eight-man rotation.