The Boston Celtics have won five in a row, 10 of their last 11, and 21 of their last 24. They’ve surged from 11th in the Eastern Conference in early January to positioning themselves to grab the top spot next week.
Yes, it's all sunshine and puppy dogs for a team that’s absolutely steamrolling teams while becoming the darling of NBA prognosticators.
And while the Celtics have answered a whole bunch of the questions that left pundits leery at stages of this surge, there are still queries that remain.
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With eight games remaining in the 2021-22 season, here is what the team must still answer:
Can the Celtics offense sustain in crunch time?
The Celtics are 12-19 in crunch-time games. They rank 25th in crunch-time offensive rating at a grizzly 101.3. They’re 24th in net rating at minus-8.1. Too often in close games this team reverts back to bad isolation habits and abandons the ball-moving ways that have been the key to their recent offensive explosion.
Boston Celtics
So what happens in the postseason when every game feels like a crunch-time game?
Maybe it won’t matter. The Celtics have so routinely built 20-plus-point leads lately that they don’t even have to sweat the fourth quarter early in the postseason. But tucked quietly beneath their dominance the past 10 weeks is the fact that Boston has played an NBA-low 36 minutes of crunch-time ball since January 7. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s just a fact that this team really hasn’t been tested in that situation much in calendar year 2022.
Boston is a ho-hum 5-3 in crunch-time games since the start of their surge. The Celtics’ offensive rating is still a concerning 102.7 in that span with a net rating of minus-9.5.
Maybe an uptick in strength of schedule at the finish line will tell us better whether it’s fair to keep stressing Boston’s late-game woes. But there’s going to be a whole bunch of white-knuckle moments coming in the postseason and the Celtics need to be ready for that adversity.
Will Derrick White make open three-point shots?
We’ll stress again that we are nitpicking here. The Celtics have a plus-12.6 net rating in White’s 475 minutes on the court since being acquired at the trade deadline. For all his shooting woes, he’s undoubtedly impacted winning with his willingness to move the ball and his defensive versatility. Boston’s bench has become far more consistent since his arrival.
Simulating all of the potential first-round matchups for the Celtics
Alas, in his 18 games since arriving from San Antonio, White is shooting 23.4 percent beyond the 3-point arc and 38.3 percent from the floor overall.
White is taking almost exclusively open looks. Only one of his 77 total 3-point attempts since arriving had a defender closer than 4 feet. But he’s 6-of-25 shooting on all "open" looks (closest defender within 4-6 feet) and 12 of 51 on all "wide-open" looks (closest defender 6+ feet).
Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens was adamant that better looks would help Josh Richardson push his 3-point percentage higher with Boston. Richardson shot 39.7 percent with the Celtics and is at 43.2 percent now with San Antonio.
White is a career 33.5 percent 3-point shooter but shot 35.7 percent -- or around league average -- over his first four seasons in the league. The Celtics are banking he’ll eventually get back there and maybe shoot north of that given the quality looks he’s getting.
As Payton Pritchard surges and Grant Williams holds down his Corner Office, getting White going is a luxury for a bench unit that will often be aided by having Jayson Tatum on the floor with them. White can still impact the game without making shots but his ability to keep defenses honest with that shot could be crucial at times in the postseason.
Can the Celtics stay healthy?
When the Celtics are whole, they have been world-beaters. The starting five of Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Al Horford has an absolutely staggering net rating of plus-24.6 in 443 minutes together. The next closest lineup with at least 250 minutes of floor time is at 15.1 (Minnesota).
But we’ve seen the Celtics defense drops off at times whenever Smart or Robert Williams isn’t on the court. Boston’s offensive rating plummets 12 points per 100 possessions whenever Tatum isn’t on the court. Brown and Robert Williams both missed playoff time last season. Smart’s style of play leaves him vulnerable to maladies. Horford is 35 years old.
Boston is leaning on a nine-man rotation and that might tighten more often to eight players in the postseason. But the team is still dangerously thin on depth and has clearly played its most inspired ball with all its horses.
Even a minor injury could complicate matters for the team. That’s part of the reason that Ime Udoka will have to balance minutes even as the Celtics strive for the top seed in the East down the stretch.
How does Udoka hold up in the playoffs?
Udoka deserves heavy consideration for Coach of the Year. If Monty Williams had snagged the award last season, we’d go so far as to say it’d be a slam dunk that Udoka wins the award this season. Now he might have to settle for runner-up.
Udoka worked wonders keeping this team engaged and committed to his vision this season. He’s snapped them out of numerous bad habits. His defense turned them into a juggernaut and, after slow progress, the ball is humming around the court with the passing he yearned for from his first day on the job.
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Now the question becomes how well Udoka and his staff can game plan in a seven-game series. Udoka, who has been an assistant on plenty of successful teams, must be ready for the chess match that awaits, particularly going against coaches that have all been at the helm of championship teams.
The Celtics could draw a team like Toronto in Round 1 and Nick Nurse will junk up the game will all sorts of zone defenses, the sort that have routinely stymied the Celtics in previous seasons. Mike Budenholzer has coached 87 playoff games and led Milwaukee to a title last season. Make all the 3-1 jokes you want but Doc Rivers has a staggering 192 playoff games under his belt. The Celtics' talent will need extend off the floor and onto the benches.