Chris Forsberg

This one Derrick White stat can predict the Celtics' success

As Derrick White goes, so do the Celtics.

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The Boston Celtics' roller-coaster play over the past month cannot be distilled down to one single factor. But you could be forgiven if you’ve ever wondered out loud if Derrick White busting out of his recent funk might be enough to steady this rocky ride.

There is perhaps no better bellwether of Boston’s night-to-night success than the performance of the team during White’s floor time. The Celtics are now 149-15 when White lands in the positive for single-game plus/minus since the start of the 2022-23 season.

That’s a staggering .909 winning percentage, for both regular season and playoff games, since the start of his first full season in green.

Marred in a nasty shooting funk for much of December and January, White has shown signs of emerging from that slump, including scoring 20-plus points in three of his last five games. He produced a 23-point outing while hitting four 3-pointers during Saturday’s triumph over the Dallas Mavericks in an NBA Finals rematch.

White finished +7 in plus/minus against Dallas, moving the Celtics to an absurd 28-2 this season when White is a positive. In fact, the only two games the Celtics have lost with White in the positive both came against the Hawks -- a narrow one-point defeat in November, and an overtime loss that Boston (literally) fumbled away earlier this month.

Admittedly, single-game plus/minus is a sometimes fluky stat. And you could easily counter that all of Boston’s starters have pretty glossy records when they land in the positive. But it’s also undeniable that Boston’s margin for error eroded recently as White and fellow backcourt mate Jrue Holiday struggled to provide their typical two-way jolt. 

White had been steamrolling towards All-Star consideration before the shooting slump invaded in December. White suffered a right foot injury in late November, missed one game and hadn’t quite been himself in the aftermath. He has refused to blame health for his woes despite the jarring numbers. 

After finishing as a minus-29 during a head-slapping loss to lottery-bound Toronto earlier this month, matching his worst performance in a Celtics uniform, White has been a positive in five of his last six games. You can see the relief wash over him when shots fall now, and he’s more frequently grabbing the fictional pockets in his uniform shorts to celebrate the 3s he typically has stashed there.

Boston’s struggles run deeper than one player. But it often feels that, as White goes, so do the Celtics. Against the Lakers last week, White had a perplexingly quiet game (three points on just five shots over 19:26) and didn’t have his normal pep. It was fair to wonder if health and the grind of nonstop basketball — after Boston’s title run, White was as last-minute addition to Team USA’s gold-medal squad in Paris — were catching up with White.

But Saturday was a throwback to the player who seemed destined for All-Star status.

Assessing his slump, White admitted that there was a bit of an adjustment for all the staters when big man Kristaps Porzingis returned in late November. He also deadpanned to reporters in Dallas that, "I shot it like crap.” White noted how head coach Joe Mazzulla has offered unwavering support, making it easier for White to work through his shooting woes.

His numbers are slowly stabilizing after a pronounced drop that stretched into calendar year 2025: 

The true sign that White is finding his groove again lies in his advanced numbers. Typically a net rating darling, White’s numbers weren’t up to his usual standards during his offensive slump.

Over White’s last six games, Boston has a +14.5 net rating in his 198 minutes of floor time. That number plummets to a team-worst minus-3.3 net rating in his 100 minutes on the bench. No other Boston player is in the negative for off-court rating during that span (next closest: Luke Kornet, +4.5 net rating in 190 minutes off the court). 

White is seemingly finding his groove again. The Celtics’ preferred starting five -- White paired with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Porzingis, and Holiday -- have dragged themselves out of the basement of the NBA’s five-man lineups. (They’re still at a minus-1.7 net rating in 208 minutes, but that’s well ahead of the minus-11.8 net rating Boston's starters owned through their first 10 games together). 

It’s oversimplifying matters to suggest that White finding his 3-point shot was enough to pull Boston out of its funk. But White making those shots more consistently certainly masks a lot of the little missteps the team has made in recent weeks. There’s plenty to clean up, but getting White back on track was vital to the overall success of the team.

The numbers don’t lie. A positive White means wins for the Celtics.

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