Celtics playoff predictions: A Tatum statement, the Kornet Game and more

We’d like to think our crystal ball has magical powers, but the truth is that the Boston Celtics have simply been so darn good over the past two seasons that it’s pretty easy to make bold predictions about the successes they’ve enjoyed.

You didn’t need to be any sort of seer to know Payton Pritchard was poised for a breakout season. Or that the Celtics would stack up a whole bunch of 3-pointers during the 2024-25 campaign. 

Still, it’s comforting that our crystal ball rarely lead us astray. With the playoffs upon us, it feels like another good opportunity to take a gaze and see what it forecasts for Boston’s next championship quest.

But before we look into the future, let’s look at our 13 season predictions (the first six from our midseason check-in, and seven more from before the 2024-25 campaign tipped) to see what we hit and what we missed:

1. Luke Kornet finishes top-five in net rating

Kornet shimmied up to third in the NBA, finishing with a team-best +14.9 net rating. (The next-closest regular on Boston’s roster: Al Horford at +11.5.)

The Oklahoma City Thunder accounted for six of the top seven spots in the league, with Kornet the only outlier. The Celtics were 8.6 points per 100 possessions better with Kornet on the court versus off this season, easily the best differential on the team (next-closest: Horford, +4.1).

Verdict: Hit

2. Drew Peterson gets final roster spot before end of season

Peterson gave the team an unexpected burst early in the season but logged only 77 minutes in 14 appearances over Boston’s final 47 games. The team ultimately elected to reward fellow two-way player JD Davison for his MVP season in Maine by adding him to the parent roster at the finish line of the season.

Offseason roster changes could open pathways to Peterson being a roster player for the Celtics next season.

Verdict: Miss

3. Jayson Tatum finishes 3rd in MVP voting ...

4. … And is the Finals MVP 

ESPN’s final straw poll of the season had Tatum fourth in balloting. We suspect he’ll leapfrog Giannis Antetokounmpo when voters submit their final ballots, which will feature Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic at the top.

And with Jaylen Brown hindered by a knee injury entering the postseason, we’re further emboldened to suggest Tatum will be the Finals MVP if the Celtics raise Banner 19.

Verdict: TBD

5. Celtics defeat Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers to win East … 

6. … Then outlast the Thunder in the NBA Finals

If higher seeds win out, then we’ll nail the path. Still, we're intrigued to see if Orlando’s offense can hang with Atlanta in a one-game showdown during Tuesday night’s play-in game.

The Knicks should have their hands full with Detroit in Round 1 but we suspect they’ll still advance. Cleveland and Oklahoma City appear poised to build off their strong regular seasons.

Verdict: TBD

7. Jaylen Brown lands on All-NBA, All-Defense teams

The late-season knee woes left him short of the 65-game threshold to qualify for award eligibility. Even if he had hit the mark, that balky knee ultimately might have prevented Brown from making a strong final case for those spots.

Verdict: Miss

8. Celtics raise the NBA Cup in Las Vegas

Luke Kornet’s mortgage is never getting paid off if this team can’t lock in for the in-season tournament.

Verdict: Miss

9. Celtics set an NBA record for most 3-pointers made in a season

Boston obliterated this record, connecting on 1,457 3-pointers to leave the 2022-23 Golden State Warriors (1,363) deep in the rearview mirror.

Verdict: Hit

10. Payton Pritchard wins Sixth Man of the Year

Just send the award to the Auerbach Center.

Verdict: TBD (likely hit)

11. Joe Mazzulla wins Coach of the Year

Too many teams overachieved (Cleveland and Detroit chief among them) for voters to right their wrong after ignoring Mazzulla last season.

Verdict: TBD (likely miss)

12. Celtics don’t lose more than two games in a row … for second straight season

It’s absurd that the 2024-25 Celtics had only two losing streaks, both of only two games: December 23 to 25 (Orlando, Philly) and February 26 to 28 (Detroit, Cleveland).

That’s two straight seasons without losing more than two games in a row, and they only did that six total times over the course of 164 games.

Verdict: Hit

13. Celtics win 62 games and repeat as NBA champions

OK, we missed by one win. We don’t think we’ll whiff on on the second half of that prediction.

Verdict: Near miss/TBD

In fact, here are six more bold postseason predictions to bring us to a tidy 19 season predictions before Banner 19:

1. The Kornet Game is coming

Every playoff run has at least one instance where a bench presence leaves an indelible mark on a postseason win. Think Leon Powe in Game 2 of the 2008 Finals, or the "Shrek and Donkey" game that Glen Davis and Nate Robinson tag-teamed during the 2010 Finals.

Kornet is going to play an even bigger role than he did last postseason (10.2 minutes per game in 13 playoff appearances) and his energy is going to tilt at least one game. 

2. Tatum is East Finals MVP, too

If we suspect that we’re steamrolling towards a Celtics-Cavaliers showdown, then Tatum is key to Boston’s chances of getting to the Finals. His averages in four regular-season meetings with Cleveland: 33.5 points, 10 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.3 steals while shooting 45 percent from the floor and 40.5 percent beyond the 3-point arc.

If we had to pick a sneaky dark horse to snag any MVP other than Tatum, keep an eye on Porzingis.

3. Jrue Holiday finds his 3-point powers

In 15 games after returning initially from his mallet finger ailment, Holiday shot 39.1 percent (27 of 69) beyond the 3-point arc. He seemed to regain his corner superpowers, routinely busting out his new Dr. Evil pinky finger celebration. 

4. Brown’s defense is key for a second straight year

All eyes are on Brown’s knee, and the Celtics absolutely need him to leave a mark on the postseason journey the way he did last year.

We suspect Brown’s biggest impact will be on the defensive side, with a willingness to grind through the knee pain to defend the likes of Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, and Gilgeous-Alexander on the biggest stages.

That trio accounted for three of Brown’s top nine most frequent matchups during the regular season and represented some of his toughest covers. 

5. Tatum averages 7.5 assists per game in postseason

Tatum averaged 4.9 assists per game during the 2023-24 regular season, and that mark spiked to 6.3 in the postseason. In 2024-25, his regular-season assist average spiked to 6.0 helpers per game, and we suspect that number will pop again in the postseason.

Whether it’s just more opportunity with bigger minutes, or all the attention he’ll draw generating quality looks for others, the triple-double watch is going to be a nightly event with Tatum.

6. The path will be bumpier … but the Celtics will not be denied

The Celtics made Banner 18 look easy while posting a 16-3 mark in the postseason. We all know it wasn’t as breezy as they made it look, particularly the four-game sweep of the Pacers in the East finals. But the East is undeniably better, and Boston is going to be challenged if opponents are healthier than they were a year ago.

Still, it's hard to see any team taking four games out of seven against this team. Health will be key but the Celtics are poised and hungry for another title.