Because the Rays must constantly turn over their roster, the old adage about controlling a player through his arbitration years no longer applies. Tampa often cuts ties at the start of arbitration, which is how an intriguing name might soon be hitting the trade market.
The Tampa Bay Times reported over the weekend that All-Star outfielder Austin Meadows could be moved when baseball's lockout ends. The Rays feature a glut of outfielders in Meadows, Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier, postseason hero Randy Arozarena, and former Red Sox farmhand Manuel Margot. They're also trying to create room for top prospect Josh Lowe.
While they could end up trading Kiermaier, they'd probably receive a better return for Meadows, a slugging corner outfielder who's entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and at least according to the old CBA, will remain under team control through 2024.
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The natural question from a Red Sox perspective is if Meadows should be a trade target. Chaim Bloom has already completed one deal with his former team, sending relievers Chris Mazza and Jeffrey Springs to Tampa for catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez last February.
And he has also already completed one deal for Meadows, too, since Bloom was part of the Tampa front office that fleeced the Pirates at the 2018 trade deadline in a trade that sent right-hander Chris Archer to Pittsburgh for Meadows, right-hander Tyler Glasnow, and pitching prospect Shane Baz, who debuted last year and started Game 2 of the Division Series.
Acquiring Meadows now would be more surprising, since the 2019 All-Star is coming off a 27-homer season that saw him drive in a career-high 106 runs. He also decently controlled the strike zone, with a 10 percent walk rate that ranked in the top third of the game. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder doesn't turn 27 until May, which puts him right in the middle of his prime.
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But there are reasons to be concerned, not least of which is the possibility of Tampa dealing him in the first place. The Rays generally recognize when to move on from their young players, and pulling the ripcord on Meadows now should be considered a signal that Tampa is getting out for a reason.
There's also a concerning trend in some of his underlying numbers, such as a drop in hard-hit and barrel rates, and a chronic inability to hit offspeed pitches. He hit just .189 vs. curveballs and .179 vs. changeups last year. Outside of a mislocated Nathan Eovaldi fastball that Meadows ripped into the bullpen, the Red Sox kept him in check during the ALDS, limiting him to just two hits.
While Meadows' power numbers were solid last year and his strikeout rate (122 in 142 games) was acceptable for a slugger, he hit just .234, including a .211 mark over his final 39 games.
The Red Sox saw similar production and bet on another former Rays outfielder last winter by signing Hunter Renfroe. He responded with 31 homers and an .816 OPS before being dealt to the Brewers in the Jackie Bradley Jr. trade right before the lockout.
Renfroe actually serves as a cautionary tale when considering any deals for Meadows. The Red Sox traded Renfroe this winter rather than pay him a bump from $3.2 million to roughly $7 million in arbitration. Meadows will be looking at a similar raise a year from now, which could turn his production from a bargain at $4 million into a luxury at $8 million.
Also, the Red Sox were able simply to sign Renfroe, because he had been released. Acquiring Meadows will require the use of prospects, and Bloom hasn't seemed particularly inclined to part with them.
Given the other needs on the roster -- particularly in the bullpen and rotation -- the Red Sox would be better served focusing their resources away from another outfielder/DH. If they want to go that route, they should just sign Kyle Schwarber in free agency.
While the left-handed hitting Meadows represents a clear offensive upgrade on Bradley, who just hit .163, there are enough red flags to make a deal not only unlikely, but probably unwise.