While there are questions about what kind of top-end talent the Red Sox will field in 2023, the back of the roster has come a long way under Chaim Bloom.
At the end of Bloom's first full season in 2020, the Red Sox were still devoting roster spots to players like infielder Tzu-Wei Lin, left-hander Mike Kickham, and right-hander Andrew Triggs. Even after cutting all of the above, they still found space for non-prospects Jeisson Rosario and Hudson Potts that fall.
Fast forward just two years, and their roster decisions will be far more difficult. The Red Sox must set their 40-man by next month, and they're bound to leave a desirable prospect exposed to the Rule 5 draft, because they've sufficiently expanded their minor league talent base.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Boston sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
This is the proverbial good problem to have, and it's worth diving into which players represent the toughest decisions. A player must be added to the roster this winter if he's in his fifth year after signing at age 18 or younger, or his fourth year otherwise. That generally means protecting 2018 high schoolers and international signees, as well as college players drafted a year later.
With pending free agents Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Matt Strahm presumably coming off the books, the Red Sox will have space to play with, at least until they start replenishing big-league talent. So let's examine some of their tougher decisions on the farm.
First off, the locks. The Red Sox left super-duper utilityman Ceddanne Rafaela exposed last year in a calculated gamble that no one would take the undersized Single-A standout, and that worked out smashingly, with Rafaela soaring to Double-A Portland as a potential Gold Glove center fielder. The 22-year-old will not only be protected, he could debut in Boston next year.
Tomase: The next Mookie? Rafaela awes teammates, foes with talent
Boston Red Sox
Find the latest Boston Red Sox news, highlights, analysis and more with NBC Sports Boston.
Given the organization's emphasis on developing homegrown starting pitching, Triple-A left-handers Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy seem like safe bets, with Walter's control (just three walks in 50 innings at Double-A) his calling card, while Murphy continues honing his command.
There should be a spot for right-hander Thaddeus Ward, too, since he impressed in his return from Tommy John surgery and was considered a prospect on par with current big leaguer Tanner Houck before being injured. He struck out over 11 batters per nine in seven starts at Double-A Portland, but he just left a start in the Arizona Fall League with an oblique strain.
Tomase: Verdugo needs to make a leap before he's pushed out the door
Speaking of locks, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox exposing either second baseman Enmanuel Valdez or outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who were acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline for catcher Christian Vazquez. Just as Bloom knew he'd be protecting Potts and Rosario after acquiring them from the Padres for Mitch Moreland in 2020, there'd be no point in shipping out Vazquez for just two months of minor-league production. Valdez followed a 26-homer 2021 with 17 more long balls this year, while Abreu topped him by slamming 19 homers between the Houston and Boston systems.
That's six spots right there. One player already on the 40-man who could be a tougher call is right-handed reliever Frank German. He allowed eight runs in a brief four-inning look this fall, but his proximity to the big leagues makes him a strong candidate to be selected.
On the other end of the spectrum are a number of Single-A prospects who aren't necessarily close to contributing, but could tempt a non-contender that can afford the bench spot. Chief among them are infielders Eddinson Paulino and Brainer Bonaci, as well as right-hander Wikelman González.
The Red Sox didn't protect their lowest-level prospects last year and didn't lose any of them. They could be tempted to go that route again, if not with the names above, then more for players like outfielders Eduardo Lopez and Gilberto Jimenez.
Jimenez, a one-time top prospect with intriguing physical tools, could be trade bait this winter after stalling out at High-A Greenville.