Justin Leger

Alex Bregman signing turns Red Sox from pretenders to contenders

Boston's playoff odds have skyrocketed with Alex Bregman in the mix.

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The Boston Red Sox are no longer content with mediocrity.

Wednesday’s signing of All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract – which includes deferred money and opt-outs after each season – confirmed the Craig Breslow-led front office isn’t all talk. They’ve mentioned their desire to add a right-handed bat and improve their infield defense ad nauseam all offseason. They killed two birds with one stone by bringing Bregman on board.

In addition to his reliable bat and Gold Glove, Bregman adds a much-needed winning pedigree to a clubhouse that's largely unfamiliar with winning in October. The soon-to-be 31-year-old played a starring role in two World Series titles with the Houston Astros. He helped Houston to seven consecutive American League Championship Series and four World Series appearances from 2017-23. Boston has clinched a playoff berth just once since winning it all in 2018.

When the offseason began, it would have been laughable to suggest a successful Red Sox winter would hinge on Bregman. Starting pitching was the priority, and the pipe dream of Juan Soto in Boston overshadowed any talk about other non-pitchers on the market.

Breslow and Co. addressed the pitching side by trading for Chicago White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, then signing longtime Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler, veteran relievers Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson, and reclamation project Patrick Sandoval to short-term contracts. While each carries some risk, their collective upside is undeniable.

Although there’s still room for improvement in the bullpen, the roster suddenly resembles a club capable of competing for a playoff spot. Perhaps they’d flirt with postseason contention without Bregman, just as they did in 2024 when they finished five games back of the third wild card. But their odds have skyrocketed upon adding him to the mix.

In fact, FanGraphs has the Red Sox’ odds of making the playoffs jumping more than 10 percentage points from 45.3 to 56.1 percent -- from pretender to contender.

Why such a significant difference? On the offensive side, Boston finally has a lineup that can strike fear in opposing pitchers. Jarren Duran, Bregman, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas as the 1-4 is nothing to scoff at -- especially considering Bregman's incredible career numbers at Fenway.

And if Trevor Story stays healthy and resembles anything close to his Colorado Rockies self – admittedly a huge “if” – it gets even scarier. That's not to mention top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer, who could bring a significant boost when they reach The Show.

Defensively, the Red Sox have options. It currently looks like they’re set on starting the season with Bregman as their second baseman. That could change if Campbell is ready to make an impact with the big-league club. He was expected to battle for the starting second baseman job in spring training with fellow youngster Vaughn Grissom.

Long-term, it makes far more sense to make Bregman the everyday third baseman and slugger Rafael Devers the designated hitter. That would raise questions about current DH Masataka Yoshida’s fit with the club, but it would give Boston the best possible defensive alignment.

There are valid reasons to believe Bregman won't be the savior. He's turning 31, coming off a down year by his standards, and he's an imperfect fit with Devers at third base and Campbell knocking on the door to the majors. Plus, paying $40 million per year for an aging infielder is risky business.

But that's exactly why this move should excite Sox fans who have been fed up with the organization's frugal approach. Breslow, principal owner John Henry, and the rest of Boston's decision-makers have finally gotten comfortable with getting uncomfortable.

That could be the difference between playing October baseball and missing out on the playoffs for the fourth straight year.

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