The MLB draft may be a head scratcher to the casual fan, who doesn't know his Spencer Torkelson afrom his Austin Martin (they're the consensus top 2 picks this year, FYI), but the draft gurus tend to be pretty plugged in when it comes time to mock things up.
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Back in 2005, for instance, Baseball America's Jim Callis (now at MLB.com) released what remains a legendary mock draft in scouting circles, nailing the first 18 picks and 21 of the first 23. (And if you talk to him now, 15 years later, he'll tell you that he's actually proudest of nailing the 26th pick, St. John's reliever and future big league bust Craig Hansen, who went to the Red Sox).
Baseball's draft starts tonight at 7, and you probably haven't heard of any of the players the Red Sox might take, but that's what the experts are for, so let's examine their selections.
MLB.com: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (Portland, Ore.)
This is Callis's pick, as well as a couple of others. Because the Red Sox don't have a second-rounder as punishment for sign-stealing, they're looking to make a high-upside selection at No. 17 overall.
Abel is considered the best high school pitcher in the draft, and at 6-5, 198, he has drawn comparisons to World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals. Abel features a fastball that hits 100 mph and has verbally committed to Oregon State. Callis's colleague, Jonathan Mayo, also has the Red Sox taking Abel. Same goes for the experts at ESPN and CBS.
Keith Law: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
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Most mock drafts are identified by the outlet, but Law, a former member of the Blue Jays front office, has built a brand for himself that transcends his employer. For the record, after years at ESPN, he's now writing for the Athletic.
A switch-hitting catcher with power, Bailey is widely considered the best college hitter in the draft. He blasted six homers in his first 17 games for the Wolfpack before the pandemic ended his season.
Baseball America: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
Mitchell is a great all-around athlete with impressive physical tools in center field. He was considered a top-10 pick earlier in the draft process, but the mocks now have him going anywhere from 15-20.
The 6-3, 204-pounder is a Type 1 diabetic, but it didn't stop him from hitting .327 in three years with the Bruins.
Sporting News: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS, Los Angeles
Pretty much everyone has connected Crow-Armstrong to the Red Sox. The son of two actors — his mother played Billy Heywood's mom in "Little Big League" — he's the latest product of a powerhouse high school that recently featured pitchers Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, and Lucas Giolito, all first-rounders.
The Vanderbilt commit is considered the best defensive outfielder in the draft and was hitting over .500 when his season was halted.